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- Coronavirus: These 6 crash scenarios can plunge us into a global economic crisis
Dat doel heeft de bank zich eind vorig jaar gesteld.
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Het concern wil de groei onder meer realiseren in opkomende markten in Azië. Over bedroeg de winst voor belastingen 5,2 miljard euro. Het aandeel Deutsche Bank won in Frankfurt 4,6 procent. Deutsche Bank said it will no longer finance oil sand or energy projects in the Arctic as part of its new fossil fuels policy. The German lender is cutting ties with fracking projects in countries with scarce water supply, and aims to end business activities in coal mining by By the of end , Deutsche Bank will review all existing oil-and-gas businesses in Europe and the US, it said.
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For businesses in Asia, a review is expected to conducted in but that will likely take longer as the region is highly dependent on coal power. Since the financial crisis, many banks, particularly Spanish, have failed to recover. German banks are also in worse shape than ever. Not only because of the Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank share prices, but above all because the regional banks have been deprived of their livelihood: the interest.
Saving banks and Volksbanks suffered for the misconduct of the large private banks due to unnecessary bureaucracy Basel 3 and low-interest rates. While they helped stabilize the national economy in the Lehman crash, they are now victims themselves. Especially since the small and medium-sized corporate customers have an account, i. Also, many home builders. If the rates for the far too expensive real estate bought will fail in the next three to four months and, as expected, there is no buyer, we will experience a negative spiral here.
In short: credit institutions, practically all over the EU and in other parts of the world, are faced with a major problem: receivables fail and the granting of loans is neither attractive nor justified by the risk profile. The risk of a domino effect in which banks, due to the mutual dependencies, fall one after the other is there.
As a result, we are very likely to see massive mergers and nationalizations. The business operations of the most profitable pillar of a universal bank, namely lending, has currently come to a standstill and is now being completely taken over by the state, ergo the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau KfW. The nationalization of an entire industry has already started. The over-indebtedness of Chinese companies is already enormous. Only in contrast to Europe and the USA are the interest rates there higher and the transparency lower.
There are no reliable figures on how high the outstanding amounts of Chinese companies are. For example, regional governments in China have amassed huge credit risks without appearing on the official balance sheets. The so-called shadow banking system allows fears that the real credit risks, which are officially known, will exceed them.
In the event of a bankruptcy wave, the very same stone can start to emerge that exposes risks that were simply not priced in or secured. At the same time, we have a heated real estate situation in major Chinese cities. This combination is deadly and can lead to a subsequent shock in the next few weeks and months, just like in crash scenario 1.
The hope here is the enormous reserves of the Chinese state to counteract this with extreme measures.
At the same time, fewer foreign government bonds are bought up. So less money will flow from China to foreign countries, especially American and European ones.
The eurozone is starting to shake. The already highly valued euro is troublesome for some companies, which is particularly noticeable in the case of export failures. If there is not a significant devaluation against the US dollar promptly, then in combination with distressed banks and soaring national debt, Southern Europe, as in for the Greek crisis, can trigger new instability in the eurozone. This time it is not just the little Greece, but above all Italy, that threatens to fall first.
Then it would be Spain, Portugal and then France. Germany could not stop this domino effect either.
Coronavirus: These 6 crash scenarios can plunge us into a global economic crisis
New European rescue packages and stability mechanisms will, therefore, be needed to keep the euro system stable. Small and medium-sized companies, in particular, without large reserves, such as restaurants, taxi drivers and roofers, can quickly fall into existential need. Without direct compensation from the state, there is a risk of bankruptcy among SMEs and thus a surge in unemployment, as around 60 percent of all employees in Europe are employed in companies with fewer than 50 employees. While Germany has a comparatively low unemployment rate, countries like Spain and France are likely to face even more massive problems preventing or cushioning a wave of unemployment.
The social security systems would collapse in the shortest possible time unless one countered directly by printing money. The only solutions here are direct government investments and support programs, without much bureaucracy via the watering can principle. It is not possible to check hundreds of thousands of applicant companies for an exact need within a few days.
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Even if you reduce an examination of an application with the associated documents to two hours, KfW and Co. There is a lack of automated and digitized processes to supply an entire economy with loans and financial injections within a few days. Without immediate action in the next few days, there is a risk that weaker nations, in particular, are overwhelmed and can no longer hold their country together.
The combination of a loss of tax revenue combined with a lack of reserves and soaring costs can break the neck of countries like Italy sooner rather than later. Every hour counts not only in the fight against the coronavirus through a shutdown but also in the necessary economic measures by the states and central banks. Start-ups in particular, which are moving from one financing round to another, are already noticing this: venture capitalists who are believed to be safe are withdrawing. Hardly anyone currently dares to invest in a project.